However, it seems that trade negotiations between the US and China are progressing well, and hence soybean and grain trade in could re-bound, thereby bringing cheer to dry bulk vessel demand. Although the country is slowly returning to normalcy after the National Congress of Chile agreed to reform the constitution, businesses have been badly affected across Chile. The team is responsible for maintaining extensive information resources and conducting weekly, monthly and annual analysis on the sector and assessing the impact of macroeconomic as well as regulatory and environmental change on the sector. In addition to detailed market analysis and rigorous forecasting, we offer market leading analysis of the dry bulk market, covering all the principle vessel categories, as well as appraisals of shipping finances, including pricing, operating costs, vessel values and investment returns. We challenge conventional wisdom through our deep understanding of the trade dynamics driving demand for different vessel types in all corners of the world.
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As supply and demand becomes more balanced over the forecast years, charter rates are expected to improve gradually. Drewry has also researched and flagged the impact of renewables on the dry bulk trade, as this has the potential to reverse charter rates, and has built two scenarios based on current trade developments.
The relative cheapness of imported coal cfr over domestic coal makes room for increased coal imports, supporting the rally in rates for the rest of the year.
However, the declining cost of producing energy from renewable sources and the general acceptance that COP21 may reduce the use of coal as a major energy source is a threat to the dry bulk shipping trade. Although the share of renewables in total energy production is quite low for most major economies, any shift away from coal could hamper the dry bulk trade over the medium term 1 — 3 years.
Looking at demand, Drewry has identified three concerns that might impact dry bulk shipping rates in the near future. First, the National Energy Administration of China plans to increase coal consumption by only 0.
Secondly, China also plans to cut down on excess steel capacity by million t over the next five years by shutting down illegal, sub-standard, steelmaking units. The combined efforts of China and India to increase the share of renewables in their energy mix could bring down the dry bulk market to an era of negative growth in the short to medium term.
To produce GW thermal coal power in , India will require million t of imported coal, meaning an annual fall of 1. If the three downside risks to demand are put together, there is a risk that charter rates could start declining.
Drewry has built a scenario to show what will happen if India and China together reduce or slow down their coal imports, and China starts cutting down its steel production output. From a low base in , average rates might still be substantially higher in , but will start sliding from current levels and will continue to fall over the next three years, stabilising thereafter.
Hence, Drewry expects its base case Scenario 1 to prevail which will see the dry bulk shipping market continue to improve, albeit at a moderate pace.
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